Sunday, December 7, 2008

EMERGING MARKETS WEEK-Weak commodity prices to hurt EM

NEW YORK, Dec 7 (Reuters) - Emerging markets are likely to continue their downward spiral this week, pressured by a slump in commodity prices as demand wanes due to the intensifying U.S. recession.

On Friday, U.S. data showed employers cut 533,000 jobs from payrolls in November, the most in 34 years as the year-old recession hit broad sections of the economy.

Oil, a key commodity exported mostly by emerging economies, dropped more than 6.0 percent in price to a four-year low on Friday as the job losses reflected waning demand in the world's top energy consumer.

Oil prices settled at $40.81 a barrel, the lowest since Dec. 10, 2004, and way down from highs over $147 a barrel reached in July.

"The impact of collapsing demand on commodity prices implies pressure across the entire emerging market universe, including Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, and Russia," Barclays Capital said in a research note.

"With these dynamics now well established, we expect economic data to disappoint across EM over the coming week."

With many developed countries either in recession or heading there, policy-makers are becoming increasingly aggressive and central banks have cut interest rates in the past week.

This week's focus is likely to switch to Latin America, where central bankers will meet in Brazil, Chile and Peru. Analysts expect the banks to keep rates unchanged.

Brazil's benchmark lending rate is currently at 13.75 percent, Chile's is at 8.25 percent and Peru's is at 6.5 percent.

The MSCI Latin American stock index .MILA00000PUS fell 2.63 percent on Friday while sovereign global bonds eased, with the Brazilian global 2040 , considered the emerging market benchmark paper, down 0.438 point in price to bid 117.500.

OIL EXPORTERS EYED

Venezuela and Ecuador will be watched as these two OPEC members watch the price of oil plummet and their coffers dwindle.

Ecuador is most vulnerable as it has seen the value of its sovereign bonds reach default levels after President Rafael Correa delayed a coupon payment of its 2012 global bond.

Correa is using a 30-day grace period on the bond to decide on his next move over loans he considers riddled with irregularities when issued by past governments. Investors hope the government will pay the coupon by Dec. 15.

However, Correa has said he will prioritize social programs for the poor ahead of payments for foreign debt investors.

With Ecuador's 2009 budget based on the assumption of a price of $85 per barrel for benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the country is likely to experience tough times ahead with oil exports priced $15 lower than WTI and its economy dollarized. (Editing by Dan Grebler)

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